8 July 2008: The Politics of Post-Conflict Elections in Côte d’Ivoire
An often-heralded rationale for post-conflict elections is grounded in the argument that by demilitarising politics these elections will end conflict and usher in democracy. However, as post-conflict elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Republic of Congo and Liberia seems to suggest, these elections are nothing but a reflection of the military asymmetric of a conflict. Thus the maxim: elections cannot settle a military conflict that negotiations or victory have failed to end. One wonders therefore if these elections are merely designed to legitimise a victor or a power-sharing agreement and in the process to institutionalise wartime institutions, alliances and political rationalities? Do these elections address the roots causes of conflict, or do they merely serve as an exit strategy for the international community to disengage from a crisis situation? What happens when elections produce results not favoured by the international community?
As Côte d’Ivoire prepares to go to the polls on November 30th to elect a new president and in the process end a six-year bruising conflict, it is important to look at these questions and interrogate the conditions prior to the elections. These are critical in determining how the country and the international community manage the precarious balance between post-conflict elections as a conflict resolution mechanism and as a vehicle for democracy. I do not contend that post-conflict elections cannot perform both.
However, looking at attempts at managing and influencing the transitional process, there is little doubt that the elections, come November, will be more of a conflict resolution process that legitimises and entrenches the present Gbagbo-Soro partnership, rather than being a robust attempt at democratisation. The question then is why are Ivorian politicians interested in the elections?
The forthcoming presidential elections will definitely determine who has the political initiative in the country. It should be noted that the roots of the Ivorian crisis could be found in the crisis of legitimacy. For the time being, the legitimacy of the regime hinges on the fact that the country is in a state of war. Thus, there is urgency within the presidential camp that the president needs a renewed mandate from the people. President Laurent Gbagbo’s mandate ended in 2005, but it has been extended once by the UN Security Council, following recommendations from the African Union Peace and Security Council. Thus President Gbagbo needs a popular mandate to bolster his legitimacy as he struggles to strengthen his hold on power.
There is no doubt the Ouagadougou Accord and its subsequent supplementary accords were motivated by the desire of President Gbagbo and Prime Minister Guillaumme Soro to take control of a peace process that was increasingly being hijacked by the international community and in the process ensure their political survival. Thus it is plausible to contend that, if the partnership is to last, it is in need of some sort of legitimacy engendered by popular vote to deflate the argument that it was a partnership designed to share the spoils of war.
As for the political opposition, a credible election will give them an opportunity not only to reassert themselves, considering they have been overshadowed by the rebels, but also a chance to attempt to cease power or at least influence it. This chance is real considering the opposition seems to count on the fact that if President Gbagbo fails to secure a knockout blow in the first round, their combined ticket might pose a credible challenge. Moreover, the political opposition might be contesting the presidential elections with an eye on the parliamentary elections. Considering the ethnic demographics in the country, it is very likely that the political opposition might do well in the legislative elections and in the process, taking the political battle to the legislature. It is against this backdrop that the various Ivorian political elites are jostling for control and influence of the electoral process.
Beyond the normative imperative to have elections in Côte d‘Ivoire, the elections will provide a mobilising ground for the international community to rally around an eventual winner and in the process provide the much needed resources for post-conflict reconstruction and development. Moreover, developmental aid from international financial institutions is contingent on some form of political stability in the country. Also, support for the electoral process might provide a window of opportunity for countries like France that have seen their influence in the country wane over time to re-engage and sustain their interest.
This analysis might be accused of naivety considering the urgency of balancing stability against peace. However, its purpose is to refocus the attention of the international community to support the faltering Ivorian peace process. For the time being, the process is in dire need of financial support to operationalise the Demobilisation, Disarmament and Reintergration process. It is thus important that in addressing the environmental conditions surrounding the elections, the international community must come to the aid of Côte d’Ivoire and support its DDR process.
Chrysantus Ayangafac, Senior Researcher, Direct Conflict Prevention Programme, ISS Addis Ababa
Source: http://www.issafrica.org/index.php?link_id=14&slink_id=6256&link_type=12&slink_type=12&tmpl_id=3
PM Soro Calls on International Donors for Election Success
ABIDJAN, June 21 (Xinhua) — Cote d’Ivoire’s Prime Minister Guillaume Soro has called on international donors to provide financial assistance to ensure that the forthcoming presidential election is a success.
“It’s time to act. Everybody asked us to hold these elections…we are waiting for nothing other than funding in order to hold the presidential election on November 30 as scheduled,” Prime Minister Soro said Friday, during a meeting with foreign diplomats in Abidjan.
“So far, all political and military obstacles have been removed or are being removed. The only obstacle is the question of resources,” the head of the government was quoted as saying by the official Ivorian News Agency.
Speaking during the same occasion, Cote d’Ivoire’s Economy and Finance Minister Charles Diby Koffi said that the ongoing peace process would cost an estimated 223 billion CFA francs (about 543 million U.S. dollars).
“Out of this figure, the government will contribute some 144 billion CFA francs with international donors expected to come up with the remaining 78 billion CFA francs,” said the minister.
Currently, Cote d’Ivoire, which has been experiencing a six-year old crisis, is in the middle of implementing a comprehensive peace deal that was signed by President Laurent Gbagbo and the New Forces rebels in Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, in March 2007.
The implementation of the agreement, which is mainly aimed at reunifying the country that has been divided for the last six years, is expected to culminate in presidential election that, after much postponement, is now scheduled to begin on November 30.
The world’s largest cocoa producers plunged into a political-military crisis since the former FN rebels seized the northern part of the county, which was once seen as model of stability in Africa, following a failed coup against President Gbagbo in September 2002.
Meanwhile, Cote d’Ivoire has identified some 660,000 undocumented citizens within the framework of the so-called fair-hearing operations that are intended to issue both identity and voter’s cards to the populations ahead of the highly anticipated presidential polls.
“These operations have enabled us to issue over 658,566 supplementary judgments,” Cote d’Ivoire’s Justice Minister Mamadou Kone said during a high-level meeting with Abidjan-based diplomats.
The minister, who was speaking during the meeting that was also attended by Prime Minister Soro, further announced that the government would proceed to hold exceptional “catch-up” sessions in selected areas in two weeks time.
The fair-hearings, which are expected to lay the groundwork for the organization of the November presidential elections, are being used to issue identification papers to nationals aged at least 13 years, whose birth was never reported with the registrar.
